No Appetite for Martyrdom
Gordon Brown is struggling like no Labour leader has struggled for years. Members of the cabinet have resigned. A few MPs are calling for him to step down. The Labour Party has just recorded its worst election results ever. MPs’ expenses have undermined public trust in parliament. And yet, despite no dearth of monumental egos, not a single credible challenger for the leadership seems likely to emerge. This is very intriguing.
There are several prominent Labour politicians with the skills, the experience and the ambition to mount a serious challenge to Gordon Brown. They include Harriet Harman, who has significant support among the grass-roots membership; David Milliband, whose presentational skills aren’t far behind Tony Blair’s; and Alan Johnson who has a relaxed, charming and genuine demeanour which would likely appeal strongly to voters. Despite the strong arguments about the risks of getting rid of Brown, the decline in support for Labour – which looks set to continue for a year – is unambiguously destined for electoral disaster and these three must know that.
My suspicion is that they have decided that, whilst a leadership takeover might soften the blow of the next election, it would be in their best long term interest to become leader after a general election wipeout rather than before it. They feel that things are so bad for Labour that they will end up in opposition regardless of what they do. Indeed, I suspect they feel that their position will be far stronger if they haven’t suffered an election defeat as prime minister before leading Labour through its now inevitable opposition years.
Just imagine being a defeated prime minister leading the opposition. Rather than looking like a change, a new beginning, you’d look like the defeated old regime clinging on hopelessly. You’d criticise the government, but they would just point out that you were the government until you were ejected by the voters. It would be very difficult to reconstruct Labour as a credible political force from the twitching remains of the current regime. Installing a new leader after a general election defeat would nicely punctuate the beginning of a renewed Labour movement.
Harman, Milliband and Johnson are shrewd politicians and so are likely to understand the risks of this strategy. They will understand that it will be difficult to renew Labour if the election defeat is exceptionally crushing. But they seem to have made the decision to repress their desires for the leadership until after the next election.
